The global coffee market in 2025 has witnessed a series of complex developments reflecting the ongoing interaction between economics, climate, politics, and international supply chains.
The October 2025 report issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) presents an accurate picture of price, production, consumption, and trade trends over recent months, highlighting regional shifts that are reshaping the global coffee trade map.
The report shows that the market is in a delicate balance with production expanding in some countries and demand declining in advanced economies while Asian and African markets are emerging as new engines of growth.
1. Stability of the Global Price Index
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 326.38 US cents per pound in October 2025, marking a slight increase of 0.5% compared to September of the same year.
Although this growth may seem modest, it reflects a continuation of the upward trend that began in mid-2024.
Prices ranged between 314.68 and 344.77 US cents per pound, a narrow band that underscores the balance between supply and demand forces.
The report indicates that current prices are 30.3% higher than in October 2024, with the 12-month average reaching 312.93 US cents per pound.
Daily volatility rose to 15.9%, signaling a cautious sentiment among traders, especially amid ongoing weather uncertainties and fluctuating supplies from South America.
2. Performance of Coffee Groups
The ICO divides the global coffee market into four main groups:
- Colombian Milds
- Other Milds
- Brazilian Naturals
- Robustas
During October 2025, their price movements varied as follows:
- Colombian Milds: down 0.1% to 403.25 cents per pound
- Other Milds: up 0.9% to 403.79 cents per pound
- Brazilian Naturals: down 0.4% to 373.47 cents per pound
- Robustas: up 2.0% to 215.06 cents per pound
These figures demonstrate a growing shift toward Robusta coffee, which is more resilient and cost-effective especially as Arabica output from South America continues to decline due to climatic changes and higher production costs.
3. Factors Influencing Price Movements
The report emphasizes that prices in October were shaped by a delicate interplay between bullish and bearish factors.
Downward Pressure Factors
- Trade cooperation between the U.S. and Brazil: Ongoing discussions to reduce tariffs on Brazilian coffee could expand global supply.
- Economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.: High interest rates and reduced consumer spending have weakened demand for premium coffees.
- Rising local costs in producing countries: Stronger currencies and higher fuel and shipping expenses have pushed up domestic prices.
Upward Support Factors
- Climatic volatility: Hurricanes and droughts have reduced output in Central America, Brazil, and parts of Asia.
- Logistics disruptions: Persistent port congestion and container shortages continue to delay shipments and lift spot prices.
- Falling certified stocks: Lower inventories in the New York and London exchanges have made the market more sensitive to supply shortages.
4. Global Stocks and Logistical Pressure
The ICO report highlights a sharp drop in global coffee inventories.
In the United States, certified Arabica stocks declined by 24.2% to just 0.47 million bags, while Robusta stocks in London fell 6.2% to 1.01 million bags.
These figures represent some of the lowest stock levels in five years, increasing the likelihood of upward price pressures should supply constraints persist or logistics worsen.
5. Developments in Global Exports
Global exports of green coffee reached 9.94 million bags in September 2025, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared with the same month in 2024.
However, performance varied significantly across the different coffee groups:
- Colombian Milds: up 7.0% to 1.07 million bags thanks to favorable weather conditions in Colombia.
- Other Milds: up 6.1% to 2.0 million bags, driven by Ethiopia and Mexico.
- Brazilian Naturals: down 21.9% to 3.19 million bags due to the off-year in Brazil’s production cycle.
- Robustas: up 23.0% to 3.67 million bags, supported by strong harvests in Vietnam and Indonesia.
As a result, Arabica’s share of total exports dropped slightly to 63.4%, while Robusta’s share continued to grow, indicating a structural shift in global demand.
6. Geographical Distribution of Exports
Asia and Oceania
The region achieved remarkable growth of 29.3%, with exports reaching 3.05 million bags in September 2025.
Vietnam accounted for more than half of this volume, followed by Indonesia, which recorded a 46% increase thanks to a plentiful crop and rising demand from China and Turkey.
Africa
African exports grew by 3.2% in September and 18.6% on an annual basis.
Ethiopia led the continent with 7.37 million bags (+27.3%), followed by Uganda with 6.65 million bags (+29.6%).
South America
Exports from South America fell 13.9% to 5.67 million bags.
Brazil, the world’s largest producer, experienced a 17.9% annual decline, totaling 41.1 million bags, largely due to lower yields and rising shipping costs at the Port of Santos.
Central America and Mexico
Monthly exports dropped 14.6% to 0.79 million bags, yet annual growth reached 7.7% thanks to improved harvests in Mexico and Nicaragua.
7. Changes in Coffee Forms Exported
Different coffee product categories also shifted in their global trade proportions:
- Soluble coffee: down 21% in September but up 5% year-on-year to 16.7 million bags.
- Roasted coffee: down 29.4% in September and 22.9% annually to 0.68 million bags.
Consequently, green coffee accounted for 87.5% of total exports, while soluble coffee rose to 12.1%, reflecting the rising popularity of instant coffee in emerging markets.
8. Global Production and Consumption
Global coffee production for the 2024/2025 crop year reached 177.5 million bags, up 5.2% from the previous season, while consumption totaled 175.1 million bags, up 1.4%, resulting in a modest surplus of 2.44 million bags.
Production by Region
- Asia and Oceania: 49.6 million bags (+7.8%)
- Africa: 22.8 million bags (+7.6%)
- South America: 86.8 million bags (+2.9%)
- Mexico and Central America: 18.3 million bags (+6.7%)
Consumption, however, declined in Europe (-1.2%) and North America (-3.3%), while rising strongly in Asia (+7.4%), confirming the region’s position as the new growth engine of global coffee demand.
9. Structural Changes in the Coffee Market
The past two decades reveal profound shifts in global coffee trade dynamics:
- Reduced dominance of South America: its share of global exports fell from 48% to 42.5% in five years.
- Rise of Asia and Oceania: their combined share reached 32%, driven by expansion in Vietnam and Indonesia.
- Africa’s growing contribution: now 14% of exports, led by Ethiopia and Uganda.
- Robusta’s growing importance: favored for its climate resilience and lower cost compared with Arabica.
- Changing consumption patterns: more households and emerging markets are turning toward instant and at-home coffee, while café consumption in Europe slightly declines.
10. Outlook for 2026
The ICO forecasts that the market will remain in a fragile balance through 2026.
Prices are expected to fluctuate between 310 and 340 cents per pound in the first half of the year, with climate variability and logistics continuing to shape the market.
Production is projected to rise in Vietnam and Ethiopia by about 8%, while Brazil may face another challenging crop year.
On the demand side, Asia and Africa are expected to continue their growth trajectory, offsetting stagnation in European consumption.
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