{"id":11252,"date":"2025-11-09T04:27:35","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T04:27:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/?p=11252"},"modified":"2025-11-09T04:29:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-09T04:29:38","slug":"global-coffee-market-report-october-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/global-coffee-market-report-october-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Coffee Market Report \u2013 October 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The global coffee market in 2025 has witnessed a series of complex developments reflecting the ongoing interaction between economics, climate, politics, and international supply chains.
The October 2025 report<\/strong> issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO)<\/strong> presents an accurate picture of price, production, consumption, and trade trends over recent months, highlighting regional shifts that are reshaping the global coffee trade map.
The report shows that the market is in a delicate balance with production expanding in some countries and demand declining in advanced economies while Asian and African markets are emerging as new engines of growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

1. Stability of the Global Price Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP)<\/strong> averaged 326.38 US cents per pound<\/strong> in October 2025, marking a slight increase of 0.5%<\/strong> compared to September of the same year.
Although this growth may seem modest, it reflects a continuation of the upward trend that began in mid-2024.
Prices ranged between 314.68 and 344.77 US cents per pound<\/strong>, a narrow band that underscores the balance between supply and demand forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report indicates that current prices are 30.3% higher<\/strong> than in October 2024, with the 12-month average reaching 312.93 US cents per pound<\/strong>.
Daily volatility rose to 15.9%<\/strong>, signaling a cautious sentiment among traders, especially amid ongoing weather uncertainties and fluctuating supplies from South America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

2. Performance of Coffee Groups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ICO divides the global coffee market into four main groups:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Colombian Milds<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Other Milds<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Brazilian Naturals<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Robustas<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    During October 2025, their price movements varied as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Colombian Milds:<\/em> down 0.1%<\/strong> to 403.25 cents per pound<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Other Milds:<\/em> up 0.9%<\/strong> to 403.79 cents per pound<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Brazilian Naturals:<\/em> down 0.4%<\/strong> to 373.47 cents per pound<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Robustas:<\/em> up 2.0%<\/strong> to 215.06 cents per pound<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      These figures demonstrate a growing shift toward Robusta coffee<\/strong>, which is more resilient and cost-effective especially as Arabica<\/strong> output from South America continues to decline due to climatic changes and higher production costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n

      3. Factors Influencing Price Movements<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      The report emphasizes that prices in October were shaped by a delicate interplay between bullish and bearish factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Downward Pressure Factors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Trade cooperation between the U.S. and Brazil:<\/strong> Ongoing discussions to reduce tariffs on Brazilian coffee could expand global supply.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. Economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.:<\/strong> High interest rates and reduced consumer spending have weakened demand for premium coffees.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. Rising local costs in producing countries:<\/strong> Stronger currencies and higher fuel and shipping expenses have pushed up domestic prices.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Upward Support Factors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Climatic volatility:<\/strong> Hurricanes and droughts have reduced output in Central America, Brazil, and parts of Asia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        2. Logistics disruptions:<\/strong> Persistent port congestion and container shortages continue to delay shipments and lift spot prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        3. Falling certified stocks:<\/strong> Lower inventories in the New York and London exchanges have made the market more sensitive to supply shortages.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
          \n\n\n\n

          4. Global Stocks and Logistical Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          The ICO report highlights a sharp drop in global coffee inventories.
          In the United States<\/strong>, certified Arabica<\/strong> stocks declined by 24.2%<\/strong> to just 0.47 million bags<\/strong>, while Robusta<\/strong> stocks in London<\/strong> fell 6.2%<\/strong> to 1.01 million bags<\/strong>.
          These figures represent some of the lowest stock levels in five years, increasing the likelihood of upward price pressures should supply constraints persist or logistics worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n

          5. Developments in Global Exports<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Global exports of green coffee reached 9.94 million bags<\/strong> in September 2025, a slight decrease of 0.2%<\/strong> compared with the same month in 2024.
          However, performance varied significantly across the different coffee groups:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • Colombian Milds:<\/strong> up 7.0%<\/strong> to 1.07 million bags<\/strong> thanks to favorable weather conditions in Colombia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Other Milds:<\/strong> up 6.1%<\/strong> to 2.0 million bags<\/strong>, driven by Ethiopia and Mexico.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Brazilian Naturals:<\/strong> down 21.9%<\/strong> to 3.19 million bags<\/strong> due to the off-year in Brazil\u2019s production cycle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Robustas:<\/strong> up 23.0%<\/strong> to 3.67 million bags<\/strong>, supported by strong harvests in Vietnam and Indonesia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            As a result, Arabica\u2019s share<\/strong> of total exports dropped slightly to 63.4%<\/strong>, while Robusta\u2019s share<\/strong> continued to grow, indicating a structural shift in global demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n

            6. Geographical Distribution of Exports<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            Asia and Oceania<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

            The region achieved remarkable growth of 29.3%<\/strong>, with exports reaching 3.05 million bags<\/strong> in September 2025.
            Vietnam<\/strong> accounted for more than half of this volume, followed by Indonesia<\/strong>, which recorded a 46%<\/strong> increase thanks to a plentiful crop and rising demand from China and Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Africa<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

            African exports grew by 3.2%<\/strong> in September and 18.6%<\/strong> on an annual basis.
            Ethiopia<\/strong> led the continent with 7.37 million bags (+27.3%)<\/strong>, followed by Uganda<\/strong> with 6.65 million bags (+29.6%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            South America<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

            Exports from South America fell 13.9%<\/strong> to 5.67 million bags<\/strong>.
            Brazil<\/strong>, the world\u2019s largest producer, experienced a 17.9%<\/strong> annual decline, totaling 41.1 million bags<\/strong>, largely due to lower yields and rising shipping costs at the Port of Santos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Central America and Mexico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

            Monthly exports dropped 14.6%<\/strong> to 0.79 million bags<\/strong>, yet annual growth reached 7.7%<\/strong> thanks to improved harvests in Mexico<\/strong> and Nicaragua<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n

            7. Changes in Coffee Forms Exported<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            Different coffee product categories also shifted in their global trade proportions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            • Soluble coffee:<\/strong> down 21%<\/strong> in September but up 5%<\/strong> year-on-year to 16.7 million bags<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Roasted coffee:<\/strong> down 29.4%<\/strong> in September and 22.9%<\/strong> annually to 0.68 million bags<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

              Consequently, green coffee<\/strong> accounted for 87.5%<\/strong> of total exports, while soluble coffee<\/strong> rose to 12.1%<\/strong>, reflecting the rising popularity of instant coffee in emerging markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              8. Global Production and Consumption<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

              Global coffee production for the 2024\/2025<\/strong> crop year reached 177.5 million bags<\/strong>, up 5.2%<\/strong> from the previous season, while consumption totaled 175.1 million bags<\/strong>, up 1.4%<\/strong>, resulting in a modest surplus of 2.44 million bags<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Production by Region<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
                \n
              • Asia and Oceania:<\/strong> 49.6 million bags (+7.8%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Africa:<\/strong> 22.8 million bags (+7.6%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • South America:<\/strong> 86.8 million bags (+2.9%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Mexico and Central America:<\/strong> 18.3 million bags (+6.7%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                Consumption, however, declined in Europe (-1.2%)<\/strong> and North America (-3.3%)<\/strong>, while rising strongly in Asia (+7.4%)<\/strong>, confirming the region\u2019s position as the new growth engine of global coffee demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n\n\n\n

                9. Structural Changes in the Coffee Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

                The past two decades reveal profound shifts in global coffee trade dynamics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                1. Reduced dominance of South America:<\/strong> its share of global exports fell from 48% to 42.5%<\/strong> in five years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                2. Rise of Asia and Oceania:<\/strong> their combined share reached 32%<\/strong>, driven by expansion in Vietnam and Indonesia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                3. Africa\u2019s growing contribution:<\/strong> now 14%<\/strong> of exports, led by Ethiopia and Uganda.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                4. Robusta\u2019s growing importance:<\/strong> favored for its climate resilience and lower cost compared with Arabica.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                5. Changing consumption patterns:<\/strong> more households and emerging markets are turning toward instant and at-home coffee, while caf\u00e9 consumption in Europe slightly declines.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                  \n\n\n\n

                  10. Outlook for 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

                  The ICO forecasts that the market will remain in a fragile balance<\/strong> through 2026.
                  Prices are expected to fluctuate between 310 and 340 cents per pound<\/strong> in the first half of the year, with climate variability and logistics continuing to shape the market.
                  Production is projected to rise in Vietnam<\/strong> and Ethiopia<\/strong> by about 8%<\/strong>, while Brazil<\/strong> may face another challenging crop year.
                  On the demand side, Asia and Africa<\/strong> are expected to continue their growth trajectory, offsetting stagnation in European consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n\n\n\n
                  The October 2025 ICO report concludes that the global coffee market is undergoing a phase of rebalancing after years of volatility.
                  Behind the relatively stable prices lie deep structural transformations in production, trade, and consumption.
                  The center of gravity is shifting from Western markets to Asia and Africa, while climate challenges are redrawing the map of producing nations.
                  With persistently low stocks and rising costs, the future of the market will depend on the industry\u2019s ability to achieve equilibrium between sustainability, productivity, and fair pricing.
                  In 2025, coffee is no longer just an agricultural commodity it is a globally interlinked system where weather patterns, trade policies, and maritime routes all influence the cup in hand anywhere on earth.<\/strong><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  The global coffee market in 2025 has witnessed a series of complex developments reflecting the ongoing interaction between economics, climate, politics, and international supply chains.The October 2025 report issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) presents an accurate picture of price, production, consumption, and trade trends over recent months, highlighting regional shifts that are reshaping …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_rtcl_gb_attr":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[551],"tags":[1559,985,1278,1557,1408,572,1550,696,697,1554,1549,972,1562,1565,1552,1563,1551,1561,1553,694,1555,1558,982,1560,1564,1556,1409],"class_list":["post-11252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-events","tag-africa","tag-arabica","tag-arabica-beans","tag-asian-markets","tag-brazil","tag-coffee-business","tag-coffee-consumption","tag-coffee-exports","tag-coffee-market-report","tag-coffee-price-indicators","tag-coffee-prices-2025","tag-coffee-production","tag-coffee-trends-2025","tag-ethiopia","tag-global-coffee-analysis","tag-global-coffee-exports","tag-global-coffee-stocks","tag-green-coffee-production","tag-instant-coffee","tag-international-coffee-organization","tag-international-coffee-trade","tag-roasted-coffee","tag-robusta","tag-robusta-beans","tag-south-america","tag-supply-and-demand-balance","tag-vietnam"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/blgpst9888oc781.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11252"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11252\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cofdar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}