Introduction

The global coffee market experienced significant developments during May 2025, with the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) recording a slight decrease of 0.4% compared to April, averaging 334.41 US cents/lb. This retreat comes amid a combination of economic and geopolitical factors that have influenced market trends, marking an important shift that demands attention from B2B coffee sector stakeholders. In this article, we examine the key findings and indicators from the Coffee Market Report for May 2025, analyzing the most influential factors and future projections.

Price Trends and Key Indicators

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 334.41 US cents/lb in May 2025, showing a modest decrease of 0.4% from April. Despite this slight retreat, the indicator remains 60.5% higher than its level in May 2024, with a 12-month rolling average of 288.70 US cents/lb. Throughout the month, the I-CIP fluctuated between 305.96 and 355.00 US cents/lb, with a median value of 335.49 US cents/lb.

Regarding different coffee varieties, Colombian Milds and Other Milds prices increased by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, reaching 395.59 and 397.84 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals also appreciated, rising by 0.5% to 380.02 US cents/lb. In contrast, Robusta prices retracted by 3.5% to 237.76 US cents/lb.

The London Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) market was the primary driver of this decline, decreasing by 4.7% to reach 224.63 US cents/lb, while the New York ICE market contracted by only 0.6%, averaging 368.21 US cents/lb in May 2025.

Market Influencing Factors

The report highlights several factors that influenced market trends during May 2025, which can be categorized into bullish and bearish factors:

Bullish Factor:

• Positive outcomes from the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Household spending potential remains strong due to low-rising debt, a slow rate of declining savings, and low negative consumer sentiment, all supporting coffee consumption.

Bearish Factors:

• The United States Department of Agriculture’s semi-annual outlook on key producing countries has forecasted an increase in supply, applying negative pressure on the I-CIP. For Brazil, there is a forecast of a 0.2% increase for crop year 2024/25 and an 8.0% increase for Peru for crop year 2025/26.
• The United States Climate Prediction Center has forecasted that neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will persist through October 2025. The El Niño phenomenon typically brings heavy rain to South America during flowering months, which could negatively impact output. Therefore, the preclusion of El Niño in 2025 implies better crop outlook.
• The Houthis have announced the suspension of their attacks. This development would contribute to improved transit times for East African coffee shipments to Europe and the gradual return of normal traffic through the Suez Canal, thereby helping reduce the amount of coffee on water, increase short-term supply, and lower transportation costs.
• During JDE Peet’s (the world’s second-largest roaster) Q1 earnings call, the company mentioned considering price increases due to persistent higher prices in 2025, potentially affecting demand.
• General uncertainty around trade tariffs in the USA continues, leading to expectations of a potential recession and consequently affecting demand strength.

Significant Development in Futures Market

One important development highlighted in the report is ICE Futures U.S., Inc.’s notice to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on May 29, 2025, announcing the phasing out of the Coffee “C” contract. This will be replaced with a new Arabica futures contract to be listed later this year. March 2028 will be the final expiry date for both futures and Regular option contracts.

The new futures contract will be priced in USD per metric tonne instead of the current system of US cents/lb (contract of 37,500 lb) and will allow for coffee to be stored in Flexible Intermediate Bulk Containers (commonly referred to as “FIBCs”). Rules and specifications for the new coffee futures and options contracts will be filed in accordance with Commission Regulations.

Global Export Trends

Green Bean Exports by Coffee Groups

Global green bean exports in April 2025 totaled 10.2 million bags, compared with 10.94 million bags in April 2024, representing a 6.8% decrease. This marks the fourth month during which total green bean exports fell in coffee year 2024/25. The main driver of this downturn was the decline in Brazilian Naturals exports. As a result, the year-to-date volume is down 4.3% at 70.65 million bags compared with 73.79 million bags between October 2023 and April 2024.

Performance details for different coffee types:

• Colombian Milds: Exports increased by 1.1% in April 2025 to 0.87 million bags from 0.86 million bags in April 2024. This is the nineteenth consecutive month of positive growth for this coffee group, resulting in a year-to-date volume increase of 18.1% to 8.39 million bags compared with 7.1 million bags between October 2023 and April 2024.
• Other Milds: Shipments rose by 1.5% in April 2025 to 2.16 million bags from 2.13 million bags in the same period of 2024. The main positive contribution came from Ethiopia, with a net gain of 0.11 million bags, though this was partially offset by Mexico, whose shipments decreased by 0.08 million bags.
• Brazilian Naturals: Green bean exports decreased by 14.4% in April 2025 to 3.19 million bags from 3.73 million bags in April 2024. Brazil was the main driver of this downturn, with its exports decreasing by 22.7% to 2.4 million bags from 3.11 million bags in April 2024.
• Robustas: Green bean exports declined by 5.8% to 3.98 million bags in April 2025 from 4.23 million bags in April 2024. The main driver of this downturn was Brazil, whose exports decreased by 86.4% to 0.1 million bags from 0.76 million bags in April 2024.

Coffee Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee

Exports of all forms of coffee from the world as a whole decreased by 5.5% to 11.43 million bags in April 2025 compared with 12.09 million bags in April 2024. Year-to-date exports fell to 78.51 million bags from 81.39 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Three out of four regions saw their exports expand, with only South America experiencing a downturn. April 2025 was the sixth consecutive month of decline for South America, which pushed down the region’s share of total exports to 32.5% in April 2025. This represents South America’s lowest monthly share of world exports since May 2018, when it stood at 27.1%.

Regional Export Performance

The report provides detailed insights into regional export performance:

• Asia & Oceania: Exports were up 8.3% to 4.14 million bags from 3.82 million bags in April 2024, showing strong growth despite global challenges.
• Africa: The region demonstrated remarkable growth with exports increasing by 30.2% to 1.8 million bags from 1.38 million bags in April 2024, highlighting Africa’s growing importance in the global coffee supply chain.
• South America: Exports decreased significantly by 28.4% to 3.71 million bags from 5.18 million bags in April 2024, reflecting the cyclical nature of production in key countries like Brazil.
• Mexico & Central America: Exports increased by 4.1% to 1.78 million bags compared with 1.71 million bags in April 2024, showing resilience in this region.

Market Volatility and Stocks

The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP declined slightly by 0.1 percentage points compared to April 2025, averaging 11.1% in May 2025. The volatility of Colombian Milds, Other Milds, and Brazilian Naturals oscillated by 0.1, -0.1, and 1.2 percentage points, month-on-month, to 11.3%, 11.2%, and 12.8%, respectively.

Certified stocks showed significant increases, with London certified stocks of Robusta coffee rising by 28.1% from April 2025 to May 2025, closing the month at 0.92 million bags. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee followed the same trend, expanding to 0.93 million 60-kg bags, a 9.4% increase versus April 2025.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The Coffee Market Report for May 2025 indicates that the global coffee market is in a phase of seeking direction, with both bullish and bearish factors influencing the market. However, bearish factors appear to have the upper hand at present, with expectations of increased supply, improved shipping conditions, and uncertainty regarding demand strength.

Coffee prices are expected to continue fluctuating in the coming months, with a tendency toward gradual decline as supply increases. Nevertheless, geopolitical and climatic factors may play a significant role in determining market direction in the medium term.

For B2B coffee market participants, the upcoming change in coffee futures contracts represents a significant development that warrants close attention, as it will affect pricing and hedging mechanisms in the future. Additionally, the changes in export patterns by regions and types provide both opportunities and challenges for buyers and suppliers alike.

In light of these developments, continuous monitoring of market indicators and trends, along with strategic planning to deal with potential fluctuations in prices and supplies during the coming period, becomes increasingly important for stakeholders in the coffee industry.