Coffee Market in June 2026: A Monthly Decline Masks a Sharp Rebound and Renewed Supply Risks

The International Coffee Organization’s June 2026 Coffee Market Report shows that the global coffee market remains highly sensitive to weather developments and changes in supply, despite improving production expectations in several major producing countries.

Although the average composite coffee price declined during the month, the market’s intra-month movement told a different story. Prices fell to their lowest level in almost two years before rebounding sharply as concerns grew over a potential major El Niño event and delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Global Coffee Indicator Falls, Then Rebounds Sharply

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, representing a 2.8% decline compared with May.

However, the monthly average does not fully reflect the volatility experienced during the period. The indicator fell to 231.96 US cents per pound on 9 June, its lowest level in nearly two years, before rising by 17.4% to reach 272.39 US cents per pound at the end of the month.

This V-shaped price movement indicates that the market was not following a stable downward trend. Instead, it remained ready to react strongly to any development that could threaten supply.

Mixed Performance Across Coffee Groups

Coffee categories did not move in the same direction during June.

• Colombian Milds averaged 324.60 US cents per pound, up 0.4%.
• Other Milds averaged 307.83 US cents per pound, down 2.4%.
• Brazilian Naturals fell by 7.4% to 272.01 US cents per pound.
• Robustas increased by 1.7% to 169.39 US cents per pound.

Robusta futures prices on the London market increased by 2.7%, while Arabica futures prices in New York declined by 4.3%.

As a result, the arbitrage between the New York and London futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents per pound, reflecting the stronger relative performance of Robusta compared with Arabica.

Weather Returns as the Main Market Driver

According to the report, weather once again became the principal factor influencing coffee prices during June.

Expectations increased that an El Niño event could develop into a particularly strong Super El Niño toward the end of 2026. These forecasts raised concerns about the possible impact on the 2026/27 coffee crop.

Potential regional effects may include:

• Lower rainfall in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
• Higher temperatures and reduced rainfall in northern South America and parts of Brazil.
• Increased rainfall in southern Brazil.
• Irregular rainfall and flooding risks in East Africa.
• Drought conditions in Southeast Asia, including Viet Nam and Indonesia.

These effects are not yet certain, but the forecasts demonstrate how quickly market sentiment can change when production risks emerge.

Heavy Rain Slows the Brazilian Harvest

Coffee-producing regions in Brazil experienced rainfall well above seasonal averages during a period that is normally drier.

The rainfall slowed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns about bean quality and localized crop losses.

By 24 June, Brazil’s harvest was approximately 44% complete, compared with 51% at the same point a year earlier and a five-year average of 47%.

In Minas Gerais, one of Brazil’s most important Arabica-producing regions, rainfall reached 31.3 millimetres during the week ending 28 June. This was equivalent to approximately 1,956% of the historical average for the period.

These conditions contributed significantly to the price rebound observed during the second half of June.

Strong Production Forecasts Limit Price Gains

Despite weather-related concerns, several factors continued to weigh on coffee prices.

Brazil’s 2026/27 crop was forecast at a record 66.7 million bags, including 45.8 million bags of Arabica, representing an estimated 28% year-on-year increase.

Viet Nam’s production was also forecast to reach approximately 32.5 million bags in the 2026/27 coffee year.

The market is therefore being influenced by two opposing forces: expectations of stronger medium-term production and short-term risks affecting the timing, availability and quality of supply.

Arabica Certified Stocks Continue to Decline

US-certified Arabica stocks fell by 13.3% during June to 0.41 million bags, their lowest level since February 2024.

Meanwhile, certified Robusta stocks in London increased by 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

Combined certified stocks across the two markets stood at only 1.09 million bags.

Low inventories make the market more vulnerable to supply disruptions. When available stocks are limited, weather events, harvest delays and shipping problems can have a stronger and faster effect on prices.

Global Green Coffee Exports Decline

Global green bean exports reached 10.8 million bags in May 2026, down 4.1% from 11.26 million bags in May 2025.

The decline was primarily driven by Arabica exports, which fell by 9.3% to 6.46 million bags.

Robusta exports, by contrast, increased by 4.8% to 4.34 million bags, supported mainly by stronger Brazilian shipments as the new Robusta crop entered the market.

Arabica’s share of total green bean exports during the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26 fell to 60.2%, compared with 64% during the same period a year earlier.

Brazilian Naturals Record the Largest Decline

Exports of Brazilian Naturals decreased by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of negative year-on-year growth.

The decline was mainly linked to lower exports from Brazil and Ethiopia, two important origins within this coffee group.

Exports of Colombian Milds declined by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags, while shipments of Other Milds decreased by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags.

What Is Happening to Ethiopian Coffee Exports?

The report showed that Ethiopian exports continued to decline between February and May 2026 across both Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds categories.

Ethiopia’s exports of Other Milds fell by 16.1% in May to approximately 0.26 million bags.

The report does not necessarily attribute this decline to a structural reduction in production. Instead, exceptionally high coffee prices during the previous season encouraged exporters and holders of stocks to release significant volumes into the market.

As prices declined in 2026, the incentive to release additional stocks weakened, resulting in lower export volumes.

For importers, this suggests that the availability of Ethiopian coffee may depend not only on crop size, but also on exporter behaviour, stockholding decisions and the timing of sales.

Africa Records the Largest Regional Decline

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 24.1% in May to 1.63 million bags, compared with 2.15 million bags in May 2025.

The decline was primarily driven by Ethiopia and Uganda, although the comparison was against exceptionally high export levels recorded in May of the previous year.

Regional export performance was as follows:

• Asia and Oceania increased by 0.4% to 4.32 million bags.
• South America increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags.
• The Caribbean, Mexico and Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags.

South America recorded its first monthly export increase in 18 months, supported by stronger Brazilian shipments and the arrival of supply from the new crop.

Green Coffee Continues to Dominate Global Trade

Green coffee remained the dominant form of coffee traded internationally, accounting for 86.5% of total exports during the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26.

Soluble coffee represented approximately 13%, while roasted coffee accounted for only 0.5%.

Exports of soluble coffee increased by 3.6% in May, while roasted coffee exports rose by 10.8%, although their total volume remained small compared with green coffee exports.

What Does the Report Mean for Importers and Roasters?

The June report indicates that lower monthly averages do not necessarily mean that the market has entered a stable downward cycle.

The sharp rebound during the second half of the month shows that prices can reverse quickly when new supply risks emerge.

Several practical conclusions can be drawn:

First, relying only on the monthly average may provide an incomplete picture, especially when the difference between the lowest and highest prices within the month is substantial.

Second, low Arabica stocks increase the market’s sensitivity to harvest delays, quality concerns and shipping disruptions.

Third, declining Arabica exports and stronger Robusta shipments may continue to affect price differentials and commercial blend strategies.

Fourth, buyers of Ethiopian coffee should monitor actual export flows and stock-release behaviour, rather than relying only on annual production estimates.

Finally, phased purchasing and distributing contracts across several periods may offer greater protection than making a single large purchasing decision based on a temporary market decline.

Market Outlook

The coffee market entered June 2026 under pressure from expectations of larger crops, but ended the month influenced by weather concerns, harvest delays and low certified inventories.

The next phase of the market is likely to depend on three main factors:

• The speed and quality of Brazil’s harvest.
• The development and intensity of El Niño.
• The ability of global coffee exports to return to growth.

While stronger production forecasts support expectations of improved supply, June’s price movement confirms that any climatic or logistical disruption can quickly push prices higher, particularly in a market where inventories remain limited and confidence is fragile.

Source: International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report – June 2026.