Coffee Market Report – November 2024: Comprehensive Analysis

Cofdar has received an important report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), offering detailed insights into the global coffee market for November 2024. The report sheds light on price trends, export performance, and key challenges affecting the industry, including climate, logistics, and geopolitical factors.

Coffee Prices: November 2024 Hits Record Highs

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rose by 8.0% compared to October, averaging 270.72 US cents/lb.

• Highest Level Since 1977: This marked the highest monthly average since May 1977, signaling strong upward momentum in coffee prices.
• Performance by Type:
  • Colombian Milds: Increased by +10.5%.
  • Other Milds: Rose by +10.2%.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Jumped by +11.6%.
  • Robustas: Grew modestly by +1.9%.

These trends underscore the growing global demand for coffee, with certain types seeing sharper increases due to market preferences.

Global Coffee Exports: Positive Growth Across All Types

Global green coffee exports grew by 15.8% in October 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, totaling 9.95 million bags (60 kg each).

• Export Growth by Type:
  • Colombian Milds: Surged by +23.5%, reflecting strong demand.
  • Other Milds: Increased by +9.7%, supported by expanding markets.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Rose by +12.1%.
  • Robustas: Saw significant growth of +21.6%, driven by production increases in countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.

Challenges Impacting the Market

Despite the positive growth in exports, the report highlights several key challenges:

1. Climatic Challenges:
   • Central America was heavily affected by Tropical Storm Sara, causing widespread damage to coffee-growing regions.
   • Issues such as leaf and fruit drop and delayed ripening are expected to impact yields significantly.
2. Logistical Issues:
   • Brazil faced shipping delays at Santos port due to container shortages and inadequate infrastructure.
   • Low water levels in the Panama Canal exacerbated global transportation challenges.
3. Geopolitical Tensions:
   • Ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea disrupted global coffee supply chains, affecting stability.

Regional Analysis

• Asia & Oceania:
  • Exports rose by 15.2%, with Indonesia leading the way with a 42% increase.
  • Vietnam also contributed positively, signaling a recovery after a period of decline.
• Africa:
  • Exports grew by 31.9%, driven by Ethiopia, which posted a remarkable 62.4% increase.
• South America:
  • The region achieved a 12.4% increase, with record-breaking exports from Brazil and Colombia.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The report highlights the dynamic nature of the global coffee market, driven by rising demand and increased production in key regions. However, challenges related to climate and logistics emphasize the need for resilient supply chains and proactive risk management strategies.